By Ella Harrison and Joseph Fitsanakis – Present-day Iran is arguably the most prolific state executioner state in the world. It currently holds the unenviable record of executing the largest number of people per capita globally. Historical data show that Iran’s rate of political- and dissident-linked executions, as opposed to executions for criminal offenses, historically spirals when the regime’s authority is challenged by civil society. This paper assembles all available data about the rate of executions in the lead-up to Operation EPIC FURY, which began in February 28, 2026, and compares them with the rate of executions following the outbreak of war. The purpose of the analysis is to assess whether an increase in the rate and intensity of executions points toward a deepening weakness at the heart of regime—such as internal fragmentation and disarray—which could foreshadow a period of wider sociopolitical instability. The execution data are therefore examined as a measurable projection of the regime’s power and absolute control over civil society. Our concluding formulation is that the evidence does not support a distinct choice between intense panic and intense confidence among regime circles. Rather, what it points to is that the regime remains strong enough to kill at a mass scale, yet not secure enough to make killing unnecessary. We argue, therefore, that the Islamic Republic’s execution policy during wartime is best understood as a form of deliberate coercion deployed from a position of
institutional strength in response to a condition of relative—but not critical—political weakness.
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By Ella Harrison and Joseph Fitsanakis – Present-day Iran is arguably the most prolific state executioner state in the world. It currently holds the unenviable record of executing the largest number of people per capita globally. Historical data show that Iran’s rate of political- and dissident-linked executions, as opposed to executions for criminal offenses, historically spirals when the regime’s authority is challenged by civil society. This paper assembles all available data about the rate of executions in the lead-up to Operation EPIC FURY, which began in February 28, 2026, and compares them with the rate of executions following the outbreak of war. The purpose of the analysis is to assess whether an increase in the rate and intensity of executions points toward a deepening weakness at the heart of regime—such as internal fragmentation and disarray—which could foreshadow a period of wider sociopolitical instability. The execution data are therefore examined as a measurable projection of the regime’s power and absolute control over civil society. Our concluding formulation is that the evidence does not support a distinct choice between intense panic and intense confidence among regime circles. Rather, what it points to is that the regime remains strong enough to kill at a mass scale, yet not secure enough to make killing unnecessary. We argue, therefore, that the Islamic Republic’s execution policy during wartime is best understood as a form of deliberate coercion deployed from a position of
institutional strength in response to a condition of relative—but not critical—political weakness.